Monsieur Emile Servan-Schreiber:
First of all, they are true conditional markets [...]
Our French luminary, one paragraph later:
Secondly, these are not markets in the conventional sense. Rather, we are using our innovative Competitive Forecasting design, where participants repeatedly enter and review their forecasts as high-low pairs of values and get scored, in the end, on how accurate and precise their forecasts turned out to be.
TAKEAWAY: They are not markets.
Psstt… Tyler Cowen made a mistake, naming the NewsFutures avian flu forecast… a “betting market”. It’s not a series of prediction market; it’s “competitive forecasting”.
