Zero.
Like the Pope.
8 transactions, so far. It’s just getting started, though. I will check again, later on.
Previous: XM-Sirius merger derivative – One transaction, only, so far
New York Times – Wall Street Journal
Psstt… With all due respect to these two prediction market luminaries, do you really believe that the timing of a merger is that socially relevant? Couldn’t they craft more interesting XM-Sirius prediction markets?
Hello!? They’re not aiming for social relevancy. They’re planning another event study paper, like the ones about election day. I’m guessing their paper is about how the stocks move with the probability of the merger or something like that — or maybe what external events influence the probability of the merger.
Just my guess — they haven’t told me anything …
“They’re not aiming for social relevancy.”
If Chris Hibbert is reading this, he’ll have a heart attack.
“the probability of the merger”
That’s what I meant, a Yes/No prediction market instead. (Other people may have other ideas.)
Yes, no divisions. We don’t even have the funding for a few Swiss mercenaries. Always looking for volunteers for our crusade though …
We did have plans for additional, extremely “socially relevant” XM-Sirius contracts, but getting third-party MM support depended on the initial contracts getting traded. And the initial volume hasn’t been that encouraging.
That said, someone (from the time of day, probably European) scalped the market maker after reading this AM about the ugly (for XM-Sirius) Congressional hearing yesterday ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/28/AR2007022801960.html ). No bids in the market currently.
I was surprised to hear Karmazin give up the “failing firm” rationale for the merger by saying that both companies would survive without it. My guess is that this means that he’s already given the merger up for dead, and is focusing on reassuring the market of Sirius’ long-term prospects alone.
Disagree with me? Readers of this blog know the best way to register their opinion …
27 transactions, as of today.
(Psstt… Put any URL with a space before and after it, so it becomes clickable.)
I will have soon a short note about “socially relevant” avian flu prediction markets.
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