Midas Oracle .ORG

Chris F. Masse February 23rd, 2007

History of the Hollywood Stock Exchange:

June 2006:
Hollywood Stock Exchange launches the Sports Stock Exchange® with special securities covering the 2006 FIFA World Cup.

April 2006:
HSX Research wins contract for building Storage Markets, an innovative prediction market platform providing insight into the data storage industry.

January 2006:
HSX Research introduces Long Lead Box Office Forecasts, a report series providing projections of box office receipts for individual film titles a full six months prior to release.

October 2005:
Black Entertainment Television (BET) selects Hollywood Stock Exchange for development of The Ultimate Hustler Xchange, an online trading game associated with the Ulitmate Hustler reality TV show.

June 2005:
Hollywood Stock Exchange formally launches Virtual Specialist™, a white label prediction market solution that enables companies to leverage the power of HSX’ patented market-maker technology.

October 2004:
HSX provides The Globe and Mail, Canada’s national newspaper, share price information. The Globe will now feature HSX share prices for new releases in its Friday film section on a regular basis.

March 2004:
Hollywood Stock Exchange introduces TVStock™ as a recurring trading option on the Exchange.

December 2003:
IMX presented to the AFI Enhanced TV (eTV) Workshop as an AFI awarded leading-edge interactive television concept.

May 2003:
The Hollywood Stock Exchange crosses the one million mark in registered traders.

January 2003:
A live IMX television show, supporting the new music market, begins airing weekdays on FUSE Networks.

December 2002:
HSX launches IMX, the Interactive Music Exchange, a newly designed Virtual SpecialistTM ASP music market licensed to FUSE Networks (formerly muchmusic usa).

October 2002:
Alexander Costakis is appointed the new Managing Director of Hollywood Stock Exchange.

March 2002:
HSX secures sale of its research product to legendary motion picture studio, MGM.

May 2001:
Cantor Fitzgerald L.P., a leading financial services provider, acquires the Hollywood Stock Exchange.

March 2001:
HSX launches HSX Research (www.hsxresearch.com), a subscription-based market research application which strives to become a leading provider of information to the entertainment research community.

January 2001:
Alexander Costakis joins the Hollywood Stock Exchange as Vice President of Sales. [see * just below]

October 2000:
Launched Virtual Producer (www.virtualproducer.com), an immersive online experience that allows consumers to participate in every aspect of the production of a film.

June 2000:
Deal signed with Pacific Century CyberWorks’ (Now.com) to create content based on HSX Movies Market®.

May 2000:
Daily Web show, Buy, Sell or Hold, launched on HSX.TV.

March 2000:
O2K (Oscar 2000) at House of Blues featuring Moby and Earth Wind.

September 1999:
Patent received for Virtual Specialist Technology.

July 1999:
Weekly radio show launched on 97.1 FM in Los Angeles.

June 1999:
Music Market® launched in NYC at Jupiter Plug.In Conference.

March 1999:
Oscar Party at House of Blues featuring Beck and Crystal Method.

April 1996:
The Hollywood Stock Exchange is established. [*]

[*] The Hollywod Stock Exchange was founded on April 12, 1996, by Max Keiser and Michael Burns. I hate when an organization deletes the names of its founders —it’s pitiful.

(Max Keiser lives now in the South of France.)

Previous: Why the Hollywood Stock Exchange was sold to Cantor Fitzerald. - An insider’s account. + Two Tipping Points for Inkling Markets and Market Scoring Rule — CORRECTION

Psstt… The HSX Research website has been revamped. Their webpage on prediction markets:

HSX is the longest continuously running Prediction Market in existence. [*] Prediction markets are virtual stock exchanges that operate using many of the same principles as real stock markets. In a Prediction Market traders come to buy and sell shares to express their expectations of how a product or service will perform in the real world. The stock prices found on a Prediction Market quite often foretell outcomes better than leading experts in the given field. This remarkable success has garnered attention from academics and the media. [**]

Prediction Markets aggregate the knowledge of a group. When a company is looking to forecast their future sales, or industry trends, they can use this powerful tool to accurately and anonymously gauge opinions. This last point is important. Our clients have found that Prediction Markets provide more accurate results than traditional employee polling because they are a forum removed from office politics. In a sense, Prediction Markets are the modern, scientific version of the suggestion box.

A Prediction Market can be empolyed in virtually any research or commercial application, and the end-user group can range from the general public to subject-matter experts. [...]

[*] Is HSX the “longest continuously operating prediction market”??? - REDUX — The reality check is that the longest continuously running [***] prediction exchange in existence is the Foresight Exchange (then named “Idea Futures”), which was co-founded in 1994 by Ken Kittlitz (and godfathered by professor Robin Hanson).

[***] Which excludes the Iowa Electronic Markets, launched internally in 1998 and on the Web in the mid-nineties, but which was not “continous”, if I understand well.

What’s funny is that, five minutes ago, Alex Costakis blamed (rightfully) Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets ABC7 for a historical mistake he made while being interviewed on camera, a day he was ill. Maybe Alex Costakis could put his own house in order before blaming (rightfully) a young competitor of him a media that cited a young competitor of him. See: Does Inkling CEO Adam Siegel deserve capital punishment, really!??

[**] Our Barry Ritholtz begs to differ: Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Previous: Email Interview: Ken Kittlitz

—

Addendum: Letter from HSX’s Alex Costakis…

[...] Just to be sure, my comments were entirely addressed to KGO ABC7 fault and their writing, producing and editorial staff’s lack in conducting background before reporting in written form and in broadcast. I made absolutely no comment about a competitor.

Media, of which you are a part of, has a special and unique role to insure accuracy, triangulation of sources and verification of background are especially important. I would encourage you to read my comments about KGO ABC7’s reporting before inaccurately reporting that I “blamed” a young competitor. [...]

—

[...] [M]y commentary is regarding that very reputable station, KGO ABC7, not having done standard background before printing a story or airing a scheduled interview. This is very a standard procedure to insure reporting integrity.

Precision: I had read the ABC7 story and Alex Costakis’ dual comment. It’s true that Alex Costakis’ remark is directed at ABC7. However, as everyone can see clearly in the ABC7 story, nowhere does this media claim that their prediction exchange is “a first”, as the HSX executive claims. As I reported in my previous story, it’s the Inkling CEO who appears to make the historical mistake:

Adam Siegel: “For the first time really, the regular public is going to be exposed to this kind of technology, and really be able to participate in something like this.”

As I said in my previous story, if Inkling Markets CEO Adam Siegel makes here reference to Robin Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule (and I would add today, “AND to the concept of user-created prediction markets”), then, yes, Adam Siegel does make a truthful statement, in my view. (Washington Stock Exchange also uses MSR, but does not have any user-created contract technology.)

TAKEAWAY: Literally, Chris Masse was wrong to say that Alex Costakis “blamed” Adam Siegel —the HSX executive indeed blamed the media (ABC7) for something that his young competitor actually said in front of a TV camera, a day he was ill. I suppose that Alex Costakis wanted ABC7 to add a paragraph giving historical credit to the Hollywood Stock Exchange. But my second look at the Adam Siegel statement (as I hinted in my previous story) can be understood as a veiled (because of cuts?) reference to two Inkling-enabled technologies: their innovative MSR mechanism design and their user-created contract capability.

Addendum #2: Letter from HSX’s Alex Costakis…

Please note, I don’t think I mentioned anything about KGO ABC7 claiming that anyone’s prediction market is ‘a first’.

“…nowhere does this media claim that their prediction exchange is “a first”…”

Rather, I was referring to KGO ABC7 gathering proper background for verification of information prior to publishing a written story, or airing a scheduled interview. Doing this type of background enables a reporter to ask questions such as “well, what about… XYZ….?”. Or, in a written article, adding a line or two of historical perspective. Nevertheless, thanks again for printing the correction - I hope KGO ABC7 sharpens up their reporting in the future.

Yeah, but the ABC7 story was more like an announcement for a new co-branded prediction exchange —not really a big picture story on all the prediction market scene. There are many news articles of this type in the New York Times or in the Wall Street Journal. Sometimes, the jounalos will put the highlight on one brand or one organization, and if the story is very short, they won’t bother writing a historical paragraph.

Anyway. Sunday is Oscar time!!!! And who says “the Oscars” says… the Hollywood Stock Exchange!!!!

Addendum: I regretted that the names of the two HSX founders (Max Keiser and Michael Burns) were not clearly spelled out on the HSX website. Well, here’s from HSX’s Alex Costakis:

I just saw your post about HSX nomination forecast accuracy. Chris, good one. But first I think the congratulations really should be directed to our traders. It’s their collective wisdom that generates our predictions. HSX is the facilitator, they are the brain power. And, beyond that, your point is well taken. The visionary founders of this innovative website should be listed. We will correct that. Happy Oscar Night.

FANTASTIC. We should reward entrepreneurs for wealth and job creation.

See: HSX - Oscars Nominations Prediction Markets - Accuracy

• Analysis (Industry) , Exchanges & Markets , History
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