Comments on: Designing Markets for Monthly Sales http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/ Prediction Markets For All Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:41:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-8268 Chris. F. Masse Mon, 12 Mar 2007 07:03:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-8268 Structuring your market http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/03/11/structuring-your-market/ Structuring your market
http://blog.mercury-rac.com/20.....ur-market/

]]> By: Joey Crampton http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-6087 Joey Crampton Wed, 07 Mar 2007 03:35:53 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-6087 OK, I checked out the “Avian Flu vs Dow Jones” using CF, quite interesting, different from any other market I've seen thus far. I like the charts, It'd be interesting to see what a chart looked like with a couple of thousand forecasts. Is there any way for traders to know how many v$ they are risking and can earn? So there aren't opening prices on these markets? Just a closing price at the end of the forecasting period which determines the payouts? How are the payouts determined if the traders aren't risking anything (I made a forecast and the v$ in my Avian Flu account are still at v$0)? OK, I checked out the “Avian Flu vs Dow Jones” using CF, quite interesting, different from any other market I’ve seen thus far. I like the charts, It’d be interesting to see what a chart looked like with a couple of thousand forecasts.

Is there any way for traders to know how many v$ they are risking and can earn?

So there aren’t opening prices on these markets? Just a closing price at the end of the forecasting period which determines the payouts? How are the payouts determined if the traders aren’t risking anything (I made a forecast and the v$ in my Avian Flu account are still at v$0)?

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-4354 Chris. F. Masse Mon, 05 Mar 2007 20:15:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-4354 The mechanism design (e.g., market design) should fit both the users (e.g., traders), who want fun, and the manager of the prediction exchange and its corporate sponsor, who expect accurate predictions. The mechanism design (e.g., market design) should fit both the users (e.g., traders), who want fun, and the manager of the prediction exchange and its corporate sponsor, who expect accurate predictions.

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-4192 Emile Servan-Schreiber Mon, 05 Mar 2007 17:03:50 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-4192 Joey, the Global Risks site features both CDA trading and Competitive Forecasting ("CF"). The predictions on "Avian Flu vs Dow Jones" are all CF... Our platform allows for CDA contracts between 0 and any maximum. That enables the market designer to calibrate the cost of shorts, which is basically MaxPayoff - marketPrice. This, however, is different from letting people buy or short "on margin". In CF, however, the min and max values for a prediction variable can be anything, even negative numbers, it doesn't matter. So, for instance, it's easy to set up a prediction for a "percentage change in sales" say from -30% to +140%. Try that in a prediction market, it gets real messy real fast to have negative share prices... If you want more details, don't hesitate to contact me directly: ejss@newsfutures.com Joey, the Global Risks site features both CDA trading and Competitive Forecasting (”CF”). The predictions on “Avian Flu vs Dow Jones” are all CF…

Our platform allows for CDA contracts between 0 and any maximum. That enables the market designer to calibrate the cost of shorts, which is basically MaxPayoff - marketPrice. This, however, is different from letting people buy or short “on margin”.

In CF, however, the min and max values for a prediction variable can be anything, even negative numbers, it doesn’t matter. So, for instance, it’s easy to set up a prediction for a “percentage change in sales” say from -30% to +140%. Try that in a prediction market, it gets real messy real fast to have negative share prices…

If you want more details, don’t hesitate to contact me directly: ejss@newsfutures.com

]]> By: Joey Crampton http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3885 Joey Crampton Mon, 05 Mar 2007 03:18:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3885 What are hi-low pairs? I joined the <a href="http://weforum.newsfutures.com/index.html">Global Risks Prediction Market</a> and I don't see any pairs. It looks to me like CDA. There doesn't seem to be a function to reduced requirements margin for shorting either. From the User Guide "When you go short, you immediately pocket the amount of the sale, but the market also preemptively withholds from your account the maximum potential amount that may be required for the buy-back - in this case, v$100 per contract." Is there something I'm missing here? What are hi-low pairs? I joined the Global Risks Prediction Market and I don’t see any pairs. It looks to me like CDA.

There doesn’t seem to be a function to reduced requirements margin for shorting either. From the User Guide “When you go short, you immediately pocket the amount of the sale, but the market also preemptively withholds from your account the maximum potential amount that may be required for the buy-back - in this case, v$100 per contract.”

Is there something I’m missing here?

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3436 Chris. F. Masse Sat, 03 Mar 2007 05:39:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3436 If NewsFutures' Competitive Forecasting is Scoring Rule, then I prefer the Market Scoring Rule of Inkling and WSX since Robin Hanson showed in his papers that it's more efficient. And I'm still waiting for some prediction market solution provider to show me some combinatorial MSR. Could be interesting to see. I want to see it at work, as opposed to on the "paper", literally. If NewsFutures’ Competitive Forecasting is Scoring Rule, then I prefer the Market Scoring Rule of Inkling and WSX since Robin Hanson showed in his papers that it’s more efficient.

And I’m still waiting for some prediction market solution provider to show me some combinatorial MSR. Could be interesting to see.

I want to see it at work, as opposed to on the “paper”, literally.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3425 Chris. F. Masse Fri, 02 Mar 2007 21:48:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3425 What is exactly "Competitive Forecasting", for Christ's sake? Averaging predictions, scoring rules, what? What is exactly “Competitive Forecasting”, for Christ’s sake? Averaging predictions, scoring rules, what?

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3411 Chris. F. Masse Fri, 02 Mar 2007 20:26:08 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3411 What's the generic term for "Competitive Forecasting"? What's the category? And how do Market Scoring Rule compare with "Competitive Forecasting"? Robin Hanson's work showed that MSR was better than Scoring Rules. What’s the generic term for “Competitive Forecasting”? What’s the category?

And how do Market Scoring Rule compare with “Competitive Forecasting”?

Robin Hanson’s work showed that MSR was better than Scoring Rules.

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Designing Prediction Markets for Monthly Sales http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3308 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Designing Prediction Markets for Monthly Sales Fri, 02 Mar 2007 14:13:29 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3308 [...] Designing Markets for Monthly Sales - 13 comments [...] [...] Designing Markets for Monthly Sales - 13 comments [...]

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3268 Emile Servan-Schreiber Fri, 02 Mar 2007 10:43:29 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/23/designing-markets-for-monthly-sales/#comment-3268 Hi Joey, NewsFutures' Competitive Forecasting model would be a natural for your sales forecasting application. Widely varrying ranges across product would't matter one bit, nor would lack of liquidity (many products, few traders). Plus it's very easy to understand and play. Contact me directly at ejss@newsfutures.com if you're interested in learning more. And guys, I hate to steel the fire from Perry and Cowgill, but NewsFutures has featured "clubs" where traders compete with their friends since 2000. Hi Joey,

NewsFutures’ Competitive Forecasting model would be a natural for your sales forecasting application. Widely varrying ranges across product would’t matter one bit, nor would lack of liquidity (many products, few traders). Plus it’s very easy to understand and play. Contact me directly at ejss@newsfutures.com if you’re interested in learning more.

And guys, I hate to steel the fire from Perry and Cowgill, but NewsFutures has featured “clubs” where traders compete with their friends since 2000.

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