Midas Oracle .ORG

Chris F. Masse February 22nd, 2007

#1. Inkling CEO Adam Siegel has made a tiny historical mistake by claiming a “first”. (See: Two Tipping Points for Inkling Markets and Market Scoring Rule)

#2. It’s great that the correction has been published. (See: Two Tipping Points for Inkling Markets and Market Scoring Rule — CORRECTION)

#3. That said, Adam Siegel’s tiny, microscopic, little mistake does not deserve capital punishment. Inkling CEO Adam Siegel made his statement under some personal circumstances:

I was sick as a dog that day and the experience of being interviewed on camera with a busy newsroom as your backdrop is quite surreal as it is!

If you want my opinion, Adam Siegel could make a little statement apologizing for the 5 controversial words (”For the first time really”). And ABC7 could run a little correction, too. But to put things in perspective, compare that to the 16 words on Iraq and uranium pronounced by President George W. Bush in his 2003 State of the Union Address. Inkling CEO Adam Siegel’s tiny mistake is no big crime, really. It’s a little mistake, as we all do —me too. And I have seen other people making such little mistakes in the past, and no one went blaming them.

I have been tipped by a reader about the discussion between John Maloney (a nobody), Alex Costakis (Hollywood Stock Exchange), Emile Servan-Schreiber (NewsFutures) and John Delaney (TradeSports-InTrade). They all blamed the kid for his tiny mistake.

Behind this is a larger picture:

- Senior prediction exchange and prediction market consulting firms are nervous by the sprouting of many new, innovative prediction exchanges and prediction market consulting firms. This is just the beginning of the wave, I’m afraid.

- John Maloney finds here the opportunity to cajole his clientele (TradeSports-InTrade and NewsFutures) and to lash out at a new industry entrant that has not paid any fee to his conference service business. (For your information, John Maloney is trying to tax everybody in the field of prediction markets of $2,500 to have people sit in a near-empty conference room to listen to boring stuff you can find for free on the Web.)

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My readers know that I have long ago opted to stay far away from this minute “prediction market group”, which is a minute business association (just like the American Gaming Association, but with only two members). I prefer freedom and I prefer the truth. I feel better, here, at Midas Oracle. What I see with any such “group” is that they elect a chief (usually, the one that they can easily control), then a policy is set up, a thought police is established, the villains are named (e.g., the “one-trick pony”), and the group ends up eating its youngs.

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