The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition
Chris F. Masse February 13th, 2007
Michael Abramowicz on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights:
But there are at least two reasons to be skeptical of this approach as a general way of assessing player contributions:
(1) The simultaneity problem. Football is a team sport, and it is difficult to disaggregate all the players’ contributions. My hunch has always been that behind a great quarterback is a great offensive line.
(2) The anticipation problem. Estimates of a particular player’s ability is already impounded into market prices. If Tom Brady were leading a last minute drive, a market might assume that he’ll probably be successful because he’s Tom Brady, thus understating the extent of his contribution
A better approach may be to give credits based on how different events contribute to winning in general. (See the Protrade markets, for examples of this approach.)
(((Pssttt… Michael Abramowicz has a book out this fall, and I will soon have a short blog post about one interesting idea he has, the “market web”.)))
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[...] study — Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX Keith Jacks Gamble on Michael Abramowicz’s Gamble on Gambling on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights: I agree that the simultaneity problem and [...]