Seeking Presenters for a “Prediction Markets in Philanthropy” Conference
Michael Strong February 12th, 2007
I’ve been asked to design and convene a small, private conference designed to introduce foundation leaders to the concept of prediction markets to evaluate prospectively the effectiveness of philanthropic gifts. An article I wrote, “How to Avoid Wasting $60 Billion in K-12 Educational Philanthropy” includes a speculative application of prediction markets in the domain of K-12 educational philanthropy:
http://www.flowproject.org/Downloads/How%20to%20Avoid%20Wasting%20$60B.pdf
I am looking for papers addressing the topic of prediction markets to evaluate the effectiveness of foundation giving. I am also looking for authors who would be especially appropriate to address this topic (but who may not yet have done so). It would be useful to have at least some representation from those who have actually implemented corporate or other organizational prediction markets in addition to prediction market scholars. It is likely that we will commission papers for this conference from invited thought leaders and pay a small stipend for those papers and for conference attendance. The conference will be scheduled after core thought leaders have been identified for participation to ensure that the timing is convenient for them. You may write suggestions in the comments or send suggestions privately to me at michael@flowidealism.org.
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“evaluate prospectively the effectiveness of philanthropic gifts”:
I’m not an expert, but my back-of-the-envelope reading of your project is that it all boils down to whether you will manage to attract traders on such prediction markets.
If it were me, I would create a test, with a handful of traders (maybe some foundation managers you know), and see whether the spaghetti thrown to the wall stick (the Google method).