Vertical, public prediction exchanges

About Alex Kirtland’s blog post.

#1. I fully agree that vertical prediction exchanges (a la HSX) are performing a better service than vertical lines in a generalist prediction exchange. (I had some thoughts on that, last year.)

#2. The vertical prediction exchange that Alex Kirtland is talking about has popped up on Delicious and other places, because, yesterday, its founder has asked the beta users to help him promote the exchange.

#3. The founder of that “new” prediction exchange is already on the Midas Oracle list of blog authors, and will soon blog about it —the technical specifics are of interest.

#4. As for the other new “prediction market” cited by Alex Kirtland (Farmetrics), as I said the other day, I would be prudent about calling it a prediction exchange. Just because somebody writes a P.R. output with the keyword “prediction market” and places it at Google News does not mean that it is a prediction exchange, as we know it. The same remark goes for Numeria. Its founder uses the keyword “prediction markets” and paid the other guy $2,500 to be lined up in a prediction market conference, but that’s not the guarantee that what he promotes is of interest to the prediction market community. Actually, Numeria seems to have to do more with the Delphi method, and the linkage he wants to make with prediction markets is just that… an idea —just like thousands of other people have suggestions about prediction markets (sometimes interesting, sometimes unfeasible –and I include myself in the crowd). As for me, I’m being more and more prudent about what and who I index as “prediction markets”. (((I could be damn wrong, sometimes, of course. I’m just one observer, and there are plenty of others —smarter than I am.)))