BetFair has the most liquid real-money prediction markets on this topic.

- Nicolas Sarkozy (the man – Republican): 45.9% –> 46.3%

- Segolene Royal (the woman – Socialist): 54.1% –> 47.6%

Good: the Socialist candidate is sinking a bit, since last time I checked.

That superficial and ethereal woman has recently provoked a political uproar in Canada —kind of saying that she would welcome Quebec making secession. Two or three more gaffes like this one, and she will be done, finished. Then will come the TV debates, and her Republican opponent will win on issues.

(((Or so I hope. I voted for free-market candidates in previous elections, and they all lost in the first round.)))

UPDATE: MIDAS ORACLE PROCLAIMS REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THE FRENCH PRESIDENT-ELECT.