Richard Marrs went to the Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets. He has written a great review. Here’s a short excerpt, dealing with Inkling:
One really useful set of thoughts came from Adam Siegal of Inklingmarkets.com ( See them here) – lessons learned as to why PM’s will fail within any group:
- No concept of what a PM is;
- Using software that is too complex and not easy to use, to set up, trade in and run a market;
- Market structure was wrong;
- Asking for an opinion – questions must be quantifiable, even if just yes or no;
- Description or rules of the market not clear/understood by the trading populous;
- Questions posed are biased;
- Time frame of the market is too long – apathy over time and the market becomes static;
- No information is available for the traders to make a reasonable judgement – trades are based on information and knowledge (duh!)
