Prognosis Markets, Anyone??

Chris F. Masse January 12th, 2007

Only one instance of “prognosis markets” in the Google search results —guess who.

I like the Greek etymology of “prognosis”:

[...] literally fore-knowing [...]

Compare with the Latin etymology of “prediction”:

[...] from præ- “before” plus dicere “to say” [...]

Starting today, I’m going to talk about “prognosis markets” —”prediction markets”, bye bye.

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NOTE TO SELF: Wait three days till Google index this present blog post. Then, perform a search for “prognosis markets” —this present Midas Oracle blog post will pop up as #1, probably. Then, rush to Midas Oracle writing some bombastic entry, like… “MIDAS ORACLE RANKS #1 AT GOOGLE…“.

Explainers , Midas Oracle Statistics
Comments(5)

5 Responses to “Prognosis Markets, Anyone??”

# George Tziralis on 12 Jan 2007 at 11:06 AM

I agree that the etymology of pro-gnosis (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Prognosis) is more adequate for capturing the concept of PM.
For example, in Greek I’m referring to ‘Προγνωστικές Αγορές’, namely ‘prognosis markets’ aka ‘prediction markets’.

But I think that the cost of switching is higher than the gain of accuracy and what we need is a unique descriptor.
# Chris Masse on 12 Jan 2007 at 11:23 AM

From Fortune magazine #1, 2007:

- Google seems to enjoy thumbing its nose at the outside world. True?

- Sergey Brin: It’s important for people to always ask, “Why not?” What’s accepted is often arbitrary.
# Daniel Reeves on 13 Jan 2007 at 5:03 PM

Note that “prognosis” is most often used for predictions of disease outcomes. Even when used more broadly it retains some of that flavor. Basically, “prognosis” means “pre-diagnosis” — the connotation is just too specific for what we’re after. Also, its verb, “prognosticate”, is cumbersome.
# Chris Masse on 13 Jan 2007 at 5:15 PM

Would “foreknowing markets” pass muster???
# Daniel Horowitzon 14 Jan 2007 at 3:13 AM

Truth markets

http://www.truthmarkets.com/