Two words to introduce Doctor James Annan to the Midas Oracle readers who have just surfaced from an Afghan cave.
- James Annan is an eminent British climate scientist, currently working in Japan.
- Wikipedians view him as a notable person.
- He’s deep into science and technology prediction markets (Foresight Exchange; maybe other exchanges too).
- James Annan’s main claim to fame, as of today, is to have managed to corner two global warming skeptics —the British spelling is “sceptics”, I have just learned. James Annan entered into a $10,000 global warming bet with two Russian scientists. (More general info here and here and here.)
To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate centre between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.
If the temperature drops Dr Annan will stump up the $10,000 (now equivalent to about £5,800) in 2018. If the Earth continues to warm, the money will go the other way.
- Other particularities: Like all the other U.K. citizens, James Annan has bad taste. And, yes, he blogs —to his critic’s despair (namely, someone in the AOPP department at Oxford University).
- I almost forgot. James Annan has posted two comments on Caveat Bettor’s proposal on global warming prediction markets.
Maybe there are details missing in the article but it seems like there should be a significance threshold. How likely is it that a rise (or fall) of x over a period of time is due to chance alone?
I still like the idea of a small series of contracts. Aside from “rolling” transaction fees (which might be counteracted by tighter spreads) and volatility, betting that the average temperature will rise is basically the same as always being long the front contract.