Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Robin Hanson Watch – #12,897

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#1. Our Royal Highness has [designed implemented] a beautiful FaviCon for his academic website. Pure beauty. (I ran into it because I followed the links of Chris Hibbert’s story, Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers.) It’s the cutter FavIcon I’ve ever seen —however I still maintain that JCK’s favicon (representing a die/dice) is the best because its meaning is related to the topic of his blog.

FavIcons - Hanson

#2. Now, the Midas Oracle’s FavIcon looks like a Mongolian’s vomit, compared to Hanson’s ones.

#3. I’m looking forward to the grand opening of Robin Hanson’s personal blog (if that’s still in the cards). Our Royal Highness had crafted a great and funny visual —I was lucky to have a glimpse at it just before he closed the public access.

#4. While I was on Robin Hanson’s academic website, I checked his “Press/Media” webpage and noticed a Wired tidbit:

Is collective intelligence really more intelligent?

Robin Hanson
Economist, George Mason University
Companies often wonder: Should we consult a broad opinion poll or a blue-ribbon committee? Prediction markets offer a better way. Because these markets reward being right and penalize being wrong, they tend to be dominated by a few experts when the experts know best, and by the masses when the crowd knows best. Either way, you win.

Do you, guys/gals, agree with him? Personally, I believe that the human market makers have more predictive power than the “crowd”, but that’s a belief I got from reading too many IEM papers.

Note To My Readers: I’m a bit late at indexing stuff at CFM. I will catch up December 2006 and January 2007, this end of week.

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