The Worst Predictions of 2006

Satellite radio will rock, eBay’s on a roll in China, and Republicans will continue to rule in Washington. Thank God, prediction markets did not make the Business Week list. And to HedgeStreet’s despair [*]:

PREDICTION: “A very active hurricane season is looming.” — National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, May 22, 2006

THE REALITY: Of the up to six “major” hurricanes in the North Atlantic that were predicted by NOAA, only two materialized. Number that reached U.S. shores: zero.

For a scientific assessment of the 2006 political prediction markets, see David Pennock on Evaluating probabilistic predictions.

[*] HedgeStreet has deleted all pages referring to its “Forecasting Center” for hurricanes. Big mistake. Web content should live forever, in my view.

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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