Comments on: HedgeStreet blog – I rate it as a C+. http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-435 Chris Masse Tue, 19 Dec 2006 02:12:39 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-435 BRAIN = a forecasting mechanism "BRAIN is a consulting market, where employees sell information in the form of a prediction to the firm []" Interesting. I need to mind this. BRAIN = a forecasting mechanism

“BRAIN is a consulting market, where employees sell information in the form of a prediction to the firm []”

Interesting. I need to mind this.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-434 Jason Ruspini Tue, 19 Dec 2006 01:56:01 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-434 Well if that ontological question bothers you for whatever reason, you can just say that BRAIN is a consulting market, where employees sell information in the form of a prediction to the firm.. or theoretically a more general combination of buyers and sellers in this sense. Well if that ontological question bothers you for whatever reason, you can just say that BRAIN is a consulting market, where employees sell information in the form of a prediction to the firm.. or theoretically a more general combination of buyers and sellers in this sense.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-433 Chris Masse Tue, 19 Dec 2006 01:47:08 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-433 If there's no trading, how can you call BRAIN a prediction market mechanism? If there’s no trading, how can you call BRAIN a prediction market mechanism?

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-432 Jason Ruspini Tue, 19 Dec 2006 01:37:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-432 Leslie Fine of HP preferred to variously call BRAIN a "mechanism", "betting game" and an "information gathering tool", but that is functionally irrelevant -- for example, to a competing vendor that <i>would</i> fall under your category of prediction markets. Leslie Fine of HP preferred to variously call BRAIN a “mechanism”, “betting game” and an “information gathering tool”, but that is functionally irrelevant — for example, to a competing vendor that would fall under your category of prediction markets.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-431 Chris Masse Tue, 19 Dec 2006 01:29:26 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-431 1. BRAIN is not prediction markets, of course. But if they predict better than prediction markets, they are interesting. 2. I looked at the blog, the site, and the personality of its founder... and the guy and his project do not have any marking of future success. Completely dull. Stronger competitors with better marketing skills will come later, if the idea is validated. 1. BRAIN is not prediction markets, of course. But if they predict better than prediction markets, they are interesting.

2. I looked at the blog, the site, and the personality of its founder… and the guy and his project do not have any marking of future success. Completely dull. Stronger competitors with better marketing skills will come later, if the idea is validated.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-429 Jason Ruspini Tue, 19 Dec 2006 01:21:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-429 Hmm, so is HP currently in the field of prediction markets? BRAIN aggregates, scores and rewards -- although HP tries not to use the word "market". Numeria's process probably has the same steps. Also, for Numeria's sort of business, I wouldn't take an insufficiently developed blog to be indicative of much at all at this stage. Hmm, so is HP currently in the field of prediction markets? BRAIN aggregates, scores and rewards — although HP tries not to use the word “market”. Numeria’s process probably has the same steps.

Also, for Numeria’s sort of business, I wouldn’t take an insufficiently developed blog to be indicative of much at all at this stage.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-428 Chris Masse Tue, 19 Dec 2006 00:39:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-428 The Numeria CEO does not have any marketing skills, in my view. Reading your comment, it is clear that they have nothing to do in the field of prediction markets ---and that was my sentiment from day one. I leave it there. The Numeria CEO does not have any marketing skills, in my view.

Reading your comment, it is clear that they have nothing to do in the field of prediction markets —and that was my sentiment from day one. I leave it there.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-427 Jason Ruspini Tue, 19 Dec 2006 00:13:18 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/18/hedgestreet-blog-i-rate-it-as-a-c/#comment-427 Chris, On what basis are you declaring Numeria to be a failure?? It is an interesting idea, although in this case their access to experts might be more important than their aggregation method. Their aggregation method is somewhat unique in that later rounds are intended to encourage consensus, whereas herding is anathema to most prediction mechanisms that we talk about. It sounds more like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method" rel="nofollow">Delphi</a> actually. Multi-round mechanisms should be more vulnerable to gravitating towards extremes as analysts might reinforce each other's biases. Chris, On what basis are you declaring Numeria to be a failure??

It is an interesting idea, although in this case their access to experts might be more important than their aggregation method. Their aggregation method is somewhat unique in that later rounds are intended to encourage consensus, whereas herding is anathema to most prediction mechanisms that we talk about.

It sounds more like Delphi actually. Multi-round mechanisms should be more vulnerable to gravitating towards extremes as analysts might reinforce each other’s biases.

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