Comments on: Swamping the 2008 nominations market with outside capital http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Alex Forshaw http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-361 Alex Forshaw Sun, 10 Dec 2006 17:31:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-361 Mike, see my edit. Sorry for the garbling. Mike, see my edit. Sorry for the garbling.

]]> By: Alex Forshaw http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-352 Alex Forshaw Sat, 09 Dec 2006 11:18:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-352 I see at least two distinct attackers, with very different styles and motives. One attacker has been building up HRC for a long time [edit: except for the huge jump from 54.5 to 68.5, although I suspect it was the same individual], and the other has been simply doing impact research. The "impact researcher"'s attacks were glaringly obvious, but if the researcher attacker had taken more care, the market wouldn't have had such an easy time discounting it. I see the HRC attacker as much, much more successful. Did anyone else notice about 3 days before Hillary's senior advisor Howard Wolfson said that Hillary was basically going for it, HRC's number shot up to 68.5 in one attack? And presumably the same person bought and bought and bought to keep HRC at 56-61 for another two days, and had over 1300 bids to keep the price at 54-59 no matter what. Then, about 12 hours before Wolfson gave his announcement to the AP, all those bids were withdrawn--aka, the decision was made and that attacker felt no further need to buttress HRC's numbers. I noted all this on my blog as it was playing out, am I the only one whom that struck as *extremely* uncanny? I see at least two distinct attackers, with very different styles and motives. One attacker has been building up HRC for a long time [edit: except for the huge jump from 54.5 to 68.5, although I suspect it was the same individual], and the other has been simply doing impact research. The “impact researcher”‘s attacks were glaringly obvious, but if the researcher attacker had taken more care, the market wouldn’t have had such an easy time discounting it. I see the HRC attacker as much, much more successful.

Did anyone else notice about 3 days before Hillary’s senior advisor Howard Wolfson said that Hillary was basically going for it, HRC’s number shot up to 68.5 in one attack? And presumably the same person bought and bought and bought to keep HRC at 56-61 for another two days, and had over 1300 bids to keep the price at 54-59 no matter what. Then, about 12 hours before Wolfson gave his announcement to the AP, all those bids were withdrawn–aka, the decision was made and that attacker felt no further need to buttress HRC’s numbers. I noted all this on my blog as it was playing out, am I the only one whom that struck as *extremely* uncanny?

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-349 Mike Linksvayer Sat, 09 Dec 2006 04:31:48 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-349 "The market’s credibility as an accurate reflection of reality has clearly been badly damaged" Really? See below. "But major non-profit motives have been massively distorting this market, to be sure." For very short periods of time. How does this damage the market's credibility? If anything it does the opposite. “The market’s credibility as an accurate reflection of reality has clearly been badly damaged”

Really? See below.

“But major non-profit motives have been massively distorting this market, to be sure.”

For very short periods of time. How does this damage the market’s credibility? If anything it does the opposite.

]]> By: Alex Forshaw http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-342 Alex Forshaw Fri, 08 Dec 2006 21:34:23 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-342 That's not true. Whoever attacked HRC plowed 1800 contracts x $10 x 50/100 (ish) = $9k tearing her down for that instant. Edwards was 600 contracts but it still probably required over 1k... That’s not true. Whoever attacked HRC plowed 1800 contracts x $10 x 50/100 (ish) = $9k tearing her down for that instant. Edwards was 600 contracts but it still probably required over 1k…

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-340 Caveat Bettor Fri, 08 Dec 2006 20:43:52 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/08/swamping-the-2008-nominations-market-with-outside-capital/#comment-340 These 2008DEM.NOM contracts trade, on average, about $100 per day each. If one person takes out $100 worth of bids or offers right now on any contract, s/he could swing the contract price 5-30% in value, and that is on the higher volume contracts. We just don't have the liquidity in these contracts right now for the significant predictive value that we desire. Now if we had the liquidity of the S&P500 ETF, the SPY, that would be 105 million times more liquidity every day ... These 2008DEM.NOM contracts trade, on average, about $100 per day each. If one person takes out $100 worth of bids or offers right now on any contract, s/he could swing the contract price 5-30% in value, and that is on the higher volume contracts.

We just don’t have the liquidity in these contracts right now for the significant predictive value that we desire. Now if we had the liquidity of the S&P500 ETF, the SPY, that would be 105 million times more liquidity every day …

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