http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-22147 The gamble of downplaying manipulation | Midas Oracle .ORG Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:18:13 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-22147 [...] The HRC attack, part 2 The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back. Manipulation can affect prices. Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux Measured Enthusiasm For Prediction Markets [...] [...] The HRC attack, part 2 The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back. Manipulation can affect prices. Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux Measured Enthusiasm For Prediction Markets [...]

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-22148 The gamble of downplaying manipulation | Midas Oracle .ORG Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:18:13 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-22148 [...] The HRC attack, part 2 The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back. Manipulation can affect prices. Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux Measured Enthusiasm For Prediction Markets [...] [...] The HRC attack, part 2 The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back. Manipulation can affect prices. Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux Measured Enthusiasm For Prediction Markets [...]

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-301 Alex Forshaw Fri, 01 Dec 2006 00:35:32 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-301 Nah...it seems like one person has been buying up the contract for some length of time. Nobody I've talked to has a clue about why anyone would pay more than 45, let alone 55, let alone 68! for Hillary's chances. She's gotten no buzz going from 41 to 55 for no reason, why would she get any more from 55 to 68? TS odds are seen as a kind of super-unbiased aggregation of assessments, so the political world probably takes them seriously by now. Which gives all the more incentive for manipulation, for someone who wants to "speak" to someone [to convince] who isn't as attentive to this stuff (a politician who isn't hitting f5 all the time watching their TS odds). Nah…it seems like one person has been buying up the contract for some length of time. Nobody I’ve talked to has a clue about why anyone would pay more than 45, let alone 55, let alone 68! for Hillary’s chances. She’s gotten no buzz going from 41 to 55 for no reason, why would she get any more from 55 to 68? TS odds are seen as a kind of super-unbiased aggregation of assessments, so the political world probably takes them seriously by now. Which gives all the more incentive for manipulation, for someone who wants to “speak” to someone [to convince] who isn’t as attentive to this stuff (a politician who isn’t hitting f5 all the time watching their TS odds).

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-299 Jason Ruspini Thu, 30 Nov 2006 23:43:24 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/the-hrc-attack-part-2/#comment-299 Maybe someone was testing whether the move would be mentioned by the (mainstream) media? The buzz/airtime could have been worth more than the market loss theoretically. Just a thought. Maybe someone was testing whether the move would be mentioned by the (mainstream) media? The buzz/airtime could have been worth more than the market loss theoretically. Just a thought.

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