Comments on: How to Define EU Failure for Betting Purposes? http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/ Prediction Markets For All Thu, 04 Dec 2008 02:22:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-315 Caveat Bettor Sat, 02 Dec 2006 13:35:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-315 This is a great idea, that could increase long-term and sustained interest in information markets. One thought is that not all the countries in the European Union have adopted the Euro currency (e.g. UK). I believe the currency is not as interesting as one or more countries exiting the EU. Perhaps a series of contracts predicting the number of the current 25 member countries of the EU, ranging from 0, 1-2, 3-4, ... to 9+ (or so), that would exit in the timeframe like Jason suggested would be a good construct, allowing for trading strategies involving multiple contracts. This is a great idea, that could increase long-term and sustained interest in information markets. One thought is that not all the countries in the European Union have adopted the Euro currency (e.g. UK). I believe the currency is not as interesting as one or more countries exiting the EU.

Perhaps a series of contracts predicting the number of the current 25 member countries of the EU, ranging from 0, 1-2, 3-4, … to 9+ (or so), that would exit in the timeframe like Jason suggested would be a good construct, allowing for trading strategies involving multiple contracts.

]]> By: Jonathan Gewirtz http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-314 Jonathan Gewirtz Fri, 01 Dec 2006 22:22:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-314 Thanks, Jason. I agree that these are excellent comments. Thanks, Jason. I agree that these are excellent comments.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-313 Chris Masse Fri, 01 Dec 2006 20:15:01 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-313 Excellent comment, JR. Excellent comment, JR.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-311 Jason Ruspini Fri, 01 Dec 2006 19:51:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/how-to-define-eu-failure-for-betting-purposes/#comment-311 I would give two suggestions that are somewhat trivial since they might apply to almost any situation. First, try to minimize the number of markets so as to concentrate liquidity. Second, the contract should be as volatile as possible to retain trading interest. (It should be affected by as wide a range of information as possible, unless you are really interested in one of the specific questions.) What about a market (or ladder of contracts) on the number of countries in EU / using the euro on Dec. 31 2016? This at least partially captures most of your examples above (although it might capture other issues that don't bear directly to the health of the EU). As a thought experiment, go back to the French referendum of May/June 2005. How would this contract have reacted to that event? (I don't know.) I would give two suggestions that are somewhat trivial since they might apply to almost any situation. First, try to minimize the number of markets so as to concentrate liquidity. Second, the contract should be as volatile as possible to retain trading interest. (It should be affected by as wide a range of information as possible, unless you are really interested in one of the specific questions.)

What about a market (or ladder of contracts) on the number of countries in EU / using the euro on Dec. 31 2016? This at least partially captures most of your examples above (although it might capture other issues that don’t bear directly to the health of the EU). As a thought experiment, go back to the French referendum of May/June 2005. How would this contract have reacted to that event? (I don’t know.)

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