Comments on: Prediction Markets Definitions http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16404 Chris. F. Masse Fri, 26 Oct 2007 05:42:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16404 Niall, then maybe you can sense the reason of the TradeSports-InTrade splitting. Niall, then maybe you can sense the reason of the TradeSports-InTrade splitting.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16403 Chris. F. Masse Fri, 26 Oct 2007 05:22:35 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16403 Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating information that traders bring when they agree on prices during their transactions. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/25/prediction-markets-produce-dynamic-objective-probabilistic-predictions-on-the-outcomes-of-future-events-by-aggregating-information-that-traders-bring-when-they-agree-on-prices-during-their-transactio/ Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating information that traders bring when they agree on prices during their transactions.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/25/prediction-markets-produce-dynamic-objective-probabilistic-predictions-on-the-outcomes-of-future-events-by-aggregating-information-that-traders-bring-when-they-agree-on-prices-during-their-transactio/

]]> By: Chris Hibbert http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16402 Chris Hibbert Thu, 25 Oct 2007 21:53:21 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16402 The DoJ will make its own definitions, and the fact that they overlap with other definitions will not slow them down, nor reduce the usefulness of those other definitions. The DoJ will make its own definitions, and the fact that they overlap with other definitions will not slow them down, nor reduce the usefulness of those other definitions.

]]> By: Niall O'Connor http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16399 Niall O'Connor Thu, 25 Oct 2007 20:20:35 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-16399 "Prediction markets are markets which are designed and run for the primary purpose of mining and aggregating information scattered among traders and which -by subsequently transforming this information into market values- produce directly interpretable predictions about specific future events." Ah I see; so the fact that Tradesports, an online betting exchange, that amongst its activities, matches persons wishing to bet on sporting events, seeks to hide under the cloak of convenience provided by the term "prediction market," will be enough to save it from the attention of the US Department of Justice?? “Prediction markets are markets which are designed and run for the primary purpose of mining and aggregating information scattered among traders and which -by subsequently transforming this information into market values- produce directly interpretable predictions about specific future events.”

Ah I see; so the fact that Tradesports, an online betting exchange, that amongst its activities, matches persons wishing to bet on sporting events, seeks to hide under the cloak of convenience provided by the term “prediction market,” will be enough to save it from the attention of the US Department of Justice??

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-8754 Chris. F. Masse Tue, 13 Mar 2007 20:19:53 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-8754 Prediction Markets Timeline (History, Chronology) http://www.midasoracle.org/issues/timeline/ Prediction Markets Timeline (History, Chronology)
http://www.midasoracle.org/issues/timeline/

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-293 Robin Hanson Wed, 29 Nov 2006 23:39:26 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-293 Eric Z., I'm not sure that IEM, HSX, and the corporate markets could not achieve the hypothesized objectives if the traders knew of these objectives. But if so, I don't feel a strong urge to adjust our vocabulary to help them with such deception. However, these functions would all come under the heading of "information" functions, so it would not be deceptive to call them "information" markets. But it seems more deceptive to use the word "prediction" to imply that they exist primarily because of the predictions they make. On the other hand, if "prediction market" just means that the markets make interpretable predictions about events, the phrase would be appropriate then. Eric Z., I’m not sure that IEM, HSX, and the corporate markets could not achieve the hypothesized objectives if the traders knew of these objectives. But if so, I don’t feel a strong urge to adjust our vocabulary to help them with such deception. However, these functions would all come under the heading of “information” functions, so it would not be deceptive to call them “information” markets. But it seems more deceptive to use the word “prediction” to imply that they exist primarily because of the predictions they make. On the other hand, if “prediction market” just means that the markets make interpretable predictions about events, the phrase would be appropriate then.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-292 Chris Masse Wed, 29 Nov 2006 23:31:26 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-292 QUOTE Many of the prediction market “academics” have more experience in commercial settings than those who label them as such. UNQUOTE I can take the slam, no problem. Seriously: I meant that I would welcome professor Robin Hanson's proposed survey on terminology. QUOTE
Many of the prediction market “academics” have more experience in commercial settings than those who label them as such.
UNQUOTE

I can take the slam, no problem.

Seriously: I meant that I would welcome professor Robin Hanson’s proposed survey on terminology.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-290 Jason Ruspini Wed, 29 Nov 2006 23:02:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-290 Masse writes: "I enjoy categorizing" Don't we all. I think that is actually a telling part of the conversation.. people simply enjoy categorizing things. It reduces tension and gives at least the appearance of <em>control</em>. Despite the sexual joke here, I don't mean to invoke the academic/real-world distinction. Many of the prediction market "academics" have more experience in commercial settings than those who label them as such. Masse writes: “I enjoy categorizing”

Don’t we all.

I think that is actually a telling part of the conversation.. people simply enjoy categorizing things. It reduces tension and gives at least the appearance of control.

Despite the sexual joke here, I don’t mean to invoke the academic/real-world distinction. Many of the prediction market “academics” have more experience in commercial settings than those who label them as such.

]]> By: Crosbie Fitch http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-289 Crosbie Fitch Wed, 29 Nov 2006 23:01:01 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-289 Floated predictions are merely the subjects of the goods that are traded. Predictions are not traded, but probabilities of any given prediction being true are traded. Knowledge/information/expertise/wisdom/confidence is traded. A fish market does not trade species, but fish (instances of species). There may be many species of fish at a fish market, but it is not the species that are traded. You may say that a fish market is a market where at least one species of fish is traded. So a prediction market is a market where at least one prediction is the subject of probability trades relating to that prediction. But, given that all fish belong to a species, you could just as easily say that a fish market was a market in which at least one fish was traded. Similarly, a prediction market was a market in which at least one probability estimate was traded (with respect to a prediction). A prediction market is a market in which probability estimates are traded with respect to one or more floated predictions. A prediction market must therefore necessarily involve the floatation of a prediction. QED I concur with Chris Masse. FAME IS MINE!!! :) Floated predictions are merely the subjects of the goods that are traded.

Predictions are not traded, but probabilities of any given prediction being true are traded. Knowledge/information/expertise/wisdom/confidence is traded.

A fish market does not trade species, but fish (instances of species). There may be many species of fish at a fish market, but it is not the species that are traded.
You may say that a fish market is a market where at least one species of fish is traded.

So a prediction market is a market where at least one prediction is the subject of probability trades relating to that prediction.

But, given that all fish belong to a species, you could just as easily say that a fish market was a market in which at least one fish was traded.

Similarly, a prediction market was a market in which at least one probability estimate was traded (with respect to a prediction).

A prediction market is a market in which probability estimates are traded with respect to one or more floated predictions.

A prediction market must therefore necessarily involve the floatation of a prediction.

QED I concur with Chris Masse.

FAME IS MINE!!! :)

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-288 Chris Masse Wed, 29 Nov 2006 21:41:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/21/prediction-markets-definitions/#comment-288 QUOTE I do think that calling a market on the Super Bowl a prediction market might not be helping us with the “betting = BAD” crowd. UNQUOTE With all due respect to professor Eric Zitzewitz, and providing that I'm right about the prevalence in the general public of *my* definition of a "prediction market" ("a market that floats a prediction"), then THE TENURED ACADEMICS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST, PERIOD. All that said in deep respect to Robin Hanson and his quest. QUOTE
I do think that calling a market on the Super Bowl a prediction market might not be helping us with the “betting = BAD” crowd.
UNQUOTE

With all due respect to professor Eric Zitzewitz, and providing that I’m right about the prevalence in the general public of *my* definition of a “prediction market” (“a market that floats a prediction”), then THE TENURED ACADEMICS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST, PERIOD.

All that said in deep respect to Robin Hanson and his quest.

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