Instant Expert: Brilliant Minds Forecast the Next 50 Years
In coming decades will we: discover that we are not alone in the universe? Unravel the physiological basis for consciousness? Routinely have false memories implanted in our minds? Begin to evolve in new directions? And will physicists finally hit upon a universal theory of everything? In fact, if the revelations of the last 50 years are anything to go on – the internet and the human genome for example – we probably have not even thought up the exciting advances that lay ahead of us.
How about a prediction that all prediction markets will at some point be reclassified as illegitimate gaming services and be immediately terminated with complete sequestration of funds (even from havens)?
Do you have a plan for how such long term bets can be guaranteed honoured?
You make me thing that long-horizon, real-money prediction markets run the risk of a changing regulation.
I have a theory that it is possible to decentralise this class of market, that rather than a trusted central fundholder and contract registry, all trust (funds and contracts) is distributed to all participants according to a reputation system. Like poker players exchanging chips/IOUs and only settling up at the end of the game – or even days later(!).
I guess all contracts could be redundantly replicated, and funds could be distributed such that should the plug be pulled at any moment, individual inequity is minimised (perhaps also based on the odds and the strength of those odds at the time).
Upon restoration all expired (or near expired) contracts are cancelled.
However, in practice the plug would never get pulled because there would be no discrete systems that could be shutdown. Every single participant would have to be sought out across the planet and demonstrate they’d destroyed all trace.
Do any prediction markets today have fail-over strategies, say if the US invaded Antigua? Could they automatically switch without glitch to backup providers in Gibraltar say?
No, because contracts are proprietary to each prediction exchange (a.k.a. futures exchange).