Don Luskin loves prediction markets but loves punditry better.
Chris F. Masse November 13th, 2006
My Observation #2: In this 5-minute CNBC segment, it seems to me (and if I’m wrong, tell me) that Don Luskin largely deviates from the message generated by pre-Election 2006 prediction markets at TradeSports-InTrade. It seems that Don Luskin did forecast a slim victory (if any) for the Dems at the US House.
My Observation #3: Don Luskin had told me that his firm (Trend Macrolytics) has integrated prediction markets —they use them as a standard tool in their toolkit for predicting financial markets.
My Take: A more complete “integration” would be for a political pundit to mirror exactly the market-generated predictions, just like a hunting dog follows the scent of a rabbit —that is, to rephrase for the media what both HOUSE.GOP.2006 and SENATE.GOP.2006 were saying. Over the long term, the prediction markets will be more accurate than the smartest political pundit.
More Information: Donald Luskin is the chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics. He blogs politics at Poor & Stupid.
My Thank-You Note: Don gave me tons of suggestions for the setting up of this group blog, Midas Oracle (including advice regarding the blog name, by the way). Thank you very much, Don.
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