DEM.HOUSE.OVER29.5 (Democrats to gain at least 30 House seats) – TradeSports blows another call. – Dixit Alex Forshaw

He writes:

My application to be approved for the [TradeSports] forums has been pending for about a month, so I can’t complain about a contract via the forum.

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The size of the Democrats’ gains, in the context in which it was discussed as well as traded, meant the amount of increase in the size of the Democratic caucus, because all business in the House of Representatives, including determining the majority, is done on the basis of caucus, not party affiliation.

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The Vermont seat, going from Independent caucusing with Democrats to Democrat is not specified in the contract, and could therefore be regarded as a pick-up. That is why I asked for a clarification, and [TradeSports] answered me in an e-mail November 08, 2006 3:38 PM: “This seat will not be included as a pick-up as Sanders did caucus with the Democrats.” [emph. added]

If Vermont is not considered a pick-up, then obviously the benchmark cannot be 201. And how can NJ13 be considered a pick-up if Vermont is not?