What to think of all those Wisdom-Of-Crowds sites popping up like forest mushrooms after an October rain?
Chris F. Masse November 1st, 2006
Via Art Hutchinson (just out of summer hibernation), this mid-October Wash Post article quoting two usual suspects:
Justin Wolfers, a business professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said collective wisdom — reflected for instance in the stock prices set jointly by millions of knowledgeable investors in the open market, and in sports betting lines determined by large groups of avid gamblers — is more likely to be accurate than Web sites claiming to feature experts. Someone must have a track record stretching back decades before it is statistically possible to conclude whether success results from talent or random chance, he said.
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“If they’re really consistent, it’s kind of hard to see how the sites will survive. The experts will leave,” said Robin Hanson, an economics professor at George Mason University.
More Reading: WSJ on fantasy wagering sites.
Note: I’m not covering those Wisdom-Of-Crowds sites on Midas Oracle or CFM, but our blog colleague Alex Kirtland does it from time to time on his blog. I prefer focusing on prediction markets and other predictive markets. Those Wisdom-Of-Crowds sites are probably very interesting too, but I can’t spread myself too thin. I will be vigilant, and provide links to some great, recap-it-all stories (like the two above), from time to time, though. If other Midas Oracle Post Authors want to publish something on those Wisdom-Of-Crowds sites, in their forecasting dimension or else, they should feel free.
- Analysis (Meta) , Wisdom of Crowds & Collective Intelligence
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