Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Does TradeSports-InTrade “duplicate” the Iowa Electronic Markets’s political contracts?

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The Iowa Electronic Market: Lessons Learned and Answers Yearned – (PDF) – by Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz – 2005-01-00

In page 2, the authors treat TradeSports as “an online betting operation that has incorporated IEM-like contracts on political events, sometimes even duplicating IEM contracts.”

My Observation:

Last Sunday, TradeSports-InTrade has rushed a set of IEM-like contracts, the “Mid-Term Election Parlays”.

My Triple Take:

1. TradeSports-InTrade is a prediction exchange, just like BetFair, just like the Iowa Electronic Markets, just like HedgeStreet, just like the US Futures Exchange, etc. As I wrote last year, I don’t understand the IEM racism towards TradeSports-InTrade.

2. Iowa Electronic Markets floats speculative contracts, just like TradeSports-InTrade.

3. As for “duplicating” IEM political contracts, I won’t comment. But I want to add that rushing a set of US political prediction markets 9 days before an election is totally unprofessional.

And Now, Ladies And Gentlemen, The HedgeStreet Slam To TradeSports:

NOTE: Many of the so-called “prediction or events markets” on the Internet today are unregulated sites.

My Take:

TradeSports-InTrade is unregulated in Ireland. It is not a member of the Independent Betting Arbitration Service. It is rated C+ (on a scale from A+ to F-) by SportsBook Review. Where can the screwed-up “yes” speculators on the NKM prediction market appeal? Nowhere. Thus, the italized note on the HedgeStreet site, “NOTE: Many of the so-called “prediction or events markets” on the Internet today are unregulated sites.” It’s true for TradeSports-InTrade, but not for BetFair (regulated in the U.K.).

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