Comments on: Reality check on TradeSports-InTrade’s recent statement http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/ Prediction Markets For All Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:52:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: TradeSports ceases its operations. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-22796 TradeSports ceases its operations. | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 18 Nov 2008 19:52:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-22796 [...] very sad day (which I am not glad to report that I predicted would happen). TradeSports is probably the latest victim of both the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act [...] [...] very sad day (which I am not glad to report that I predicted would happen). TradeSports is probably the latest victim of both the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act [...]

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-75 Chris Masse Thu, 26 Oct 2006 22:40:23 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-75 Another BetFair versus TradeSports blog post: BetFair’s Annual Review 2006: How did the world’s #1 real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) fare in 2005/2006? http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/12/betfairs-annual-review-2006-how-did-the-worlds-1-real-money-prediction-exchange-betting-exchange-fare-in-20052006/ --- Internet gambling ban has passed. http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/09/30/internet-gambling-ban-has-passed/ Neteller will comply with the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006. http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/19/neteller-will-comply-with-the-unlawful-internet-gambling-enforcement-act-of-2006/ Reality check on TradeSports-InTrade’s recent statement http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/ TEN CEO John Delaney finally admits that the new law will cut off TradeSports-InTrade’s revenues. http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/05/ten-ceo-john-delaney-finally-admits-that-the-new-law-will-cut-off-tradesports-intrades-revenues/ Internet Gambling Crisis - AGAIN http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/16/internet-gambling-crisis-again/ Using NETeller for TradeSports-InTrade, no more http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/18/using-neteller-for-tradesports-intrade-no-more/ TradeSports-InTrade John Delaney won’t travel to the U.S. anymore. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/19/tradesports-intrade-john-delaney-wont-travel-to-the-us-anymore/ Criminal prosecutions related to online gambling will be pursued even in cases where assets and defendants are positioned outside of the United States. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/03/criminal-prosecutions-related-to-online-gambling-will-be-pursued-even-in-cases-where-assets-and-defendants-are-positioned-outside-of-the-united-states/ TRADESPORTS-INTRADE HAS REMOVED NETELLER AS A DEPOSIT AND WITHDRAWAL METHOD FOR ALL MEMBERS –NOT JUST THE US CITIZENS AND RESIDENTS. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/05/tradesports-intrade-has-removed-neteller-as-a-deposit-and-withdrawal-method-for-all-members-not-just-the-us-citizens-and-residents/ NETELLER RECORDS OF THE TRADESPORTS-INTRADE CLIENTS WHO ARE US CITIZENS/RESIDENTS ARE NOW IN THE HANDS OF THE US DOJ AND IRS. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/09/neteller-records-of-the-tradesports-intrade-clients-who-are-us-citizensresidents-are-now-in-the-hands-of-the-us-doj-and-irs/ NETeller money seized by U.S. prosecutors will be returned to NETeller’s (now, former) U.S. customers. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/03/21/neteller-money-seized-by-us-prosecutors-will-be-returned-to-netellers-now-former-us-customers/ Will InTrade-TradeSpots lose big after the (hypothetical) passing of the 2007 Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act??? http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/03/will-intrade-tradespots-lose-big-after-the-hypothetical-passing-of-the-2007-internet-gambling-regulation-and-enforcement-act/ US DOJ searches financial records for traces of Internet gambling and betting. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/12/us-doj-searches-financial-records-for-traces-of-internet-gambling-and-betting/ Another BetFair versus TradeSports blog post:

BetFair’s Annual Review 2006: How did the world’s #1 real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) fare in 2005/2006?

http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....-20052006/

—

Internet gambling ban has passed.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....as-passed/

Neteller will comply with the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....t-of-2006/

Reality check on TradeSports-InTrade’s recent statement
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....statement/

TEN CEO John Delaney finally admits that the new law will cut off TradeSports-InTrade’s revenues.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....-revenues/

Internet Gambling Crisis - AGAIN
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....sis-again/

Using NETeller for TradeSports-InTrade, no more
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....e-no-more/

TradeSports-InTrade John Delaney won’t travel to the U.S. anymore.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....s-anymore/

Criminal prosecutions related to online gambling will be pursued even in cases where assets and defendants are positioned outside of the United States.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ed-states/

TRADESPORTS-INTRADE HAS REMOVED NETELLER AS A DEPOSIT AND WITHDRAWAL METHOD FOR ALL MEMBERS –NOT JUST THE US CITIZENS AND RESIDENTS.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....residents/

NETELLER RECORDS OF THE TRADESPORTS-INTRADE CLIENTS WHO ARE US CITIZENS/RESIDENTS ARE NOW IN THE HANDS OF THE US DOJ AND IRS.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....j-and-irs/

NETeller money seized by U.S. prosecutors will be returned to NETeller’s (now, former) U.S. customers.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....customers/

Will InTrade-TradeSpots lose big after the (hypothetical) passing of the 2007 Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act???
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ement-act/

US DOJ searches financial records for traces of Internet gambling and betting.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....d-betting/

]]> By: Chris Hibbert http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-71 Chris Hibbert Thu, 26 Oct 2006 04:52:30 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-71 Oh, I take this back: "they have no non-sports bets targetted at Americans." They have some bets on American politics. They cover the presidential race in some detail, as well as majority control of House and Senate, but not state-by-state governors races, congressional races by district, etc. They cover British and Australian TV, but not American. Why would Americans pay attention to BetFair, except gamble on sports? TradeSports tries to capture our attention with Prediction Markets in other subjects. Oh, I take this back: “they have no non-sports bets targetted at Americans.” They have some bets on American politics. They cover the presidential race in some detail, as well as majority control of House and Senate, but not state-by-state governors races, congressional races by district, etc. They cover British and Australian TV, but not American. Why would Americans pay attention to BetFair, except gamble on sports? TradeSports tries to capture our attention with Prediction Markets in other subjects.

]]> By: Chris Hibbert http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-70 Chris Hibbert Thu, 26 Oct 2006 04:38:18 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-70 I think it goes a bit further than the two of you admit. BetFair represents themselves as a betting establishment, and all the odds are presented betting style. They do explain how to convert the odds from British-style betting odds to American-style, but they don't recognize percentile odds (prediction market-style) as a plausible alternative. If you want to visit the market and look at the predictions, you have to understand betting lingo, or be willing to convert every number. TradeSports thinks it's a prediction market, and you can read the output of any of their markets as a prediction. The market thinks there's an X% chance of the event taking place. The anti-BetFair prejudice is because BetFair isn't targetting us, as I've said before. Their sports are primarily European (I take that back; they're covering the 4 major American sports if you look carefully.) But they have no non-sports bets targetted at Americans. (Special Bets includes: Australia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and UK) And one more thing I've begun to think is an important distinction between betting and prediction markets: can you resell your bets on BetFair? It looks like BetFair holds your money until the event concludes. You can hedge your exposure by betting the other side if the odds move in your favor, but you can't liquidate. That changes the incentives, and I think the predictiveness of the market. I don't know of any other differences between the two, but I haven't traded on BetFair (because I'm not their target audience) so I can't tell whether there are other distinctions. I think it goes a bit further than the two of you admit. BetFair represents themselves as a betting establishment, and all the odds are presented betting style. They do explain how to convert the odds from British-style betting odds to American-style, but they don’t recognize percentile odds (prediction market-style) as a plausible alternative. If you want to visit the market and look at the predictions, you have to understand betting lingo, or be willing to convert every number. TradeSports thinks it’s a prediction market, and you can read the output of any of their markets as a prediction. The market thinks there’s an X% chance of the event taking place.

The anti-BetFair prejudice is because BetFair isn’t targetting us, as I’ve said before. Their sports are primarily European (I take that back; they’re covering the 4 major American sports if you look carefully.) But they have no non-sports bets targetted at Americans. (Special Bets includes: Australia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and UK)

And one more thing I’ve begun to think is an important distinction between betting and prediction markets: can you resell your bets on BetFair? It looks like BetFair holds your money until the event concludes. You can hedge your exposure by betting the other side if the odds move in your favor, but you can’t liquidate. That changes the incentives, and I think the predictiveness of the market.

I don’t know of any other differences between the two, but I haven’t traded on BetFair (because I’m not their target audience) so I can’t tell whether there are other distinctions.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-69 Chris Masse Wed, 25 Oct 2006 21:14:54 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-69 #1. OK, then we're friends again. #2. "I’m just saying that Betfair calls what it does betting"... Hummm... BetFair introduces itself as a "betting exchange" and as a bookmaker killer. As such, and now I agree with you 50%, BetFair uses the "betting" vocabulary when communicating to... British bettors... although this does not completely do the trick. Once that, BetFair is compelled to educate bettors about trading. (They have set up workshops called "BetFair Education".) Once again, I see that there is anti-BetFair prejudice in America. Midas Oracle will contribute to dissipate that. #1. OK, then we’re friends again.

#2. “I’m just saying that Betfair calls what it does betting”…

Hummm… BetFair introduces itself as a “betting exchange” and as a bookmaker killer. As such, and now I agree with you 50%, BetFair uses the “betting” vocabulary when communicating to… British bettors… although this does not completely do the trick. Once that, BetFair is compelled to educate bettors about trading. (They have set up workshops called “BetFair Education”.)

Once again, I see that there is anti-BetFair prejudice in America. Midas Oracle will contribute to dissipate that.

]]> By: David Pennock http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-68 David Pennock Wed, 25 Oct 2006 21:07:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-68 Oh, I completely and wholehartedly agree that Betfair is a trading exchange, and that Betfair and TradeSports do exactly the same thing. I'm just saying that Betfair calls what it does betting and TradeSports calls what it does trading. The difference is semantics only: there is no difference in substance. Oh, I completely and wholehartedly agree that Betfair is a trading exchange, and that Betfair and TradeSports do exactly the same thing. I’m just saying that Betfair calls what it does betting and TradeSports calls what it does trading. The difference is semantics only: there is no difference in substance.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-67 Chris Masse Wed, 25 Oct 2006 18:39:52 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-67 #1. Good point. #2. "though Betfair doesn’t market itself as a trading exchange"... What the hell are you talking about, doc??? BetFair and TradeSports are two retail, real-money prediction exchanges (a.k.a. betting exchanges). 2.1. As for the term "trading exchange", it does not specifically apply to TradeSports. BetFair handled half a billion transactions in 2005. http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/12/betfairs-annual-review-2006-how-did-the-worlds-1-real-money-prediction-exchange-betting-exchange-fare-in-20052006/ 2.2. Definition of an exchange: - An exchange is an organized market with transactions concentrated in a physical facility with participants entering two-sided quotations (bid and ask) on a continuous basis. There's no need to say "trading exchange". It's a John Delaney's lingo that is not generic. #1. Good point.

#2. “though Betfair doesn’t market itself as a trading exchange”…

What the hell are you talking about, doc???

BetFair and TradeSports are two retail, real-money prediction exchanges (a.k.a. betting exchanges).

2.1. As for the term “trading exchange”, it does not specifically apply to TradeSports. BetFair handled half a billion transactions in 2005.

http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....-20052006/

2.2. Definition of an exchange:
- An exchange is an organized market with transactions concentrated in a physical facility with participants entering two-sided quotations (bid and ask) on a continuous basis.

There’s no need to say “trading exchange”. It’s a John Delaney’s lingo that is not generic.

]]> By: David Pennock http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-65 David Pennock Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:49:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/reality-check-on-tradesports-intrades-recent-statement/#comment-65 While I appreciated your bluntness, and I agree that Betfair is a bigger phenomenon (though Betfair doesn't market itself as a trading exchange), I would argue that Tradesports is certainly a phenomenon in its own right. And characterizing them as "without ethics" and "thugs" seems to go a bit far over the top. While I appreciated your bluntness, and I agree that Betfair is a bigger phenomenon (though Betfair doesn’t market itself as a trading exchange), I would argue that Tradesports is certainly a phenomenon in its own right. And characterizing them as “without ethics” and “thugs” seems to go a bit far over the top.

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