Comments on: Faulty polls screw up the political prediction markets. http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/24/faulty-polls-screw-up-the-political-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets For All Thu, 04 Dec 2008 02:30:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/24/faulty-polls-screw-up-the-political-prediction-markets/#comment-63 Mike Linksvayer Wed, 25 Oct 2006 00:22:21 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/24/faulty-polls-screw-up-the-political-prediction-markets/#comment-63 I don't know about Alaska, other than that it is the only US Senate seat TS got wrong in 2004. If polls also got it wrong does that imply causality? Another thing to analyze would be how strongly markets react to new polling data over many instances. But my conjecture was that there are many races with no or poor (stale or conducted in a biased fashion) polling data. Are markets worthless for those races? That's what I took "without polls..." to mean. I don’t know about Alaska, other than that it is the only US Senate seat TS got wrong in 2004. If polls also got it wrong does that imply causality?

Another thing to analyze would be how strongly markets react to new polling data over many instances.

But my conjecture was that there are many races with no or poor (stale or conducted in a biased fashion) polling data. Are markets worthless for those races? That’s what I took “without polls…” to mean.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/24/faulty-polls-screw-up-the-political-prediction-markets/#comment-62 Chris Masse Tue, 24 Oct 2006 20:56:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/24/faulty-polls-screw-up-the-political-prediction-markets/#comment-62 Point #1. I don't agree. I think that when the polls are wrong, the political prediction markets are always wrong. The 2004 Alaska prediction market was inaccurate because the polls were wrong, am I correct? Point #2. You're right. I will edit my post and suppress the word "probably". Point #1. I don’t agree. I think that when the polls are wrong, the political prediction markets are always wrong. The 2004 Alaska prediction market was inaccurate because the polls were wrong, am I correct?

Point #2. You’re right. I will edit my post and suppress the word “probably”.

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/24/faulty-polls-screw-up-the-political-prediction-markets/#comment-59 Mike Linksvayer Tue, 24 Oct 2006 18:02:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/24/faulty-polls-screw-up-the-political-prediction-markets/#comment-59 Overstatement and understatement in turn... <blockquote>Without polls, the political prediction markets could return to the locker room.</blockquote> I bet there are many contracts at TS and WSX for which there is no good polling data. I bet those will be fairly predictive. Less so than those for which corresponding polls exist, but hard to tell whether that is due to polling data informing the markets or the same races attracting both polls and thicker markets. Someone should do some analysis. :) <blockquote>Plus, prediction markets aggregate probably more than just the polls.</blockquote> Probably? Including private polling. Overstatement and understatement in turn…

Without polls, the political prediction markets could return to the locker room.

I bet there are many contracts at TS and WSX for which there is no good polling data. I bet those will be fairly predictive. Less so than those for which corresponding polls exist, but hard to tell whether that is due to polling data informing the markets or the same races attracting both polls and thicker markets. Someone should do some analysis. :)

Plus, prediction markets aggregate probably more than just the polls.

Probably? Including private polling.

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