Comments on: TradeSports Castro Contract and CUBA http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/13/tradesports-castro-contract-and-cuba/ Prediction Markets For All Tue, 06 Jan 2009 15:19:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Jonathan Gewirtz http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/13/tradesports-castro-contract-and-cuba/#comment-38 Jonathan Gewirtz Tue, 17 Oct 2006 14:12:41 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/13/tradesports-castro-contract-and-cuba/#comment-38 There is little doubt that Fidel Castro is out of power and will not return. The interesting question is whether his successors will change anything, and nobody outside of the Cuban leadership knows the answer to this question. The discussion of the fund at International Investing assumes that change of leadership = change of policy, and while this may be an accurate assumption it is not necessarily so. There is little doubt that Fidel Castro is out of power and will not return. The interesting question is whether his successors will change anything, and nobody outside of the Cuban leadership knows the answer to this question. The discussion of the fund at International Investing assumes that change of leadership = change of policy, and while this may be an accurate assumption it is not necessarily so.

]]> By: Steve Roman http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/13/tradesports-castro-contract-and-cuba/#comment-37 Steve Roman Mon, 16 Oct 2006 13:59:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/13/tradesports-castro-contract-and-cuba/#comment-37 The US bans investments in Cuba, so the fund isn’t able to make any direct investments in that market (they do hold some speculative defaulted bonds.) Instead the fund is positioned to profit when sanctions are eventually lifted, which is why the holdings show a lot of shipping and tourism firms. The fund is not a pure Cuba play, but recently it had been trading like it is. The US bans investments in Cuba, so the fund isn’t able to make any direct investments in that market (they do hold some speculative defaulted bonds.) Instead the fund is positioned to profit when sanctions are eventually lifted, which is why the holdings show a lot of shipping and tourism firms. The fund is not a pure Cuba play, but recently it had been trading like it is.

]]> By: Sacha Peter http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/13/tradesports-castro-contract-and-cuba/#comment-35 Sacha Peter Sat, 14 Oct 2006 06:42:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/13/tradesports-castro-contract-and-cuba/#comment-35 Investing in a Cuban fund that has <a href="http://www.secinfo.com/d12TC3.v13Vc.htm" rel="nofollow">zero holdings in Cuba</a>? This seems to be a case of getting correlation and causation confused. Top 10 holdings as of June 2006: Florida East Coast Industries, Inc. 18.73% Consolidated Water Co. 8.57% Watsco Incorporated 6.62% Seaboard Corporation 6.61% Florida Rock Industries, Inc. 6.08% Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 4.80% Carnival Corp. 4.31% Garmin Ltd. 4.28% Orthofix International N.V. 3.00% Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones 2.53% This analysis is suspect. Investing in a Cuban fund that has zero holdings in Cuba? This seems to be a case of getting correlation and causation confused.

Top 10 holdings as of June 2006:
Florida East Coast Industries, Inc. 18.73%
Consolidated Water Co. 8.57%
Watsco Incorporated 6.62%
Seaboard Corporation 6.61%
Florida Rock Industries, Inc. 6.08%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 4.80%
Carnival Corp. 4.31%
Garmin Ltd. 4.28%
Orthofix International N.V. 3.00%
Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones 2.53%

This analysis is suspect.

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