Let’s say a web site enabled users to build up a prediction accuracy record/reputation and thus could offer their services as commissioned brokers for small stakes by non-US speculators. This commission would consequently give them sufficient funds to use as a stake in their own speculations.

Presumably because no credit card is involved this could then legitimise participation by US citizens?

Is there a law against US citizens RECEIVING funds from speculation?

TradeSports / InTrade are (alas) considered as “gambling”. It’s a pity, since Professor Wolfers and others have shown that their markets display predictive power.

HedgeStreet, regulated by the US CFTC, is considered as an exchange designed for hedging capacity, and which also allows speculation of course.

BetFair, in the U.K., is the world’s biggest prediction exchange, and is regulated by the British Gambling Commission. The don’t export their top-notch service to U.S. residents, as long it’s illegal in America.

When does an investment turn into a gamble?

When does a prediction of whether it snows at Christmas turn into a wintersports operator’s snow-sure insurance premium? Is the only difference the aspect of frivolity?