Laureate of the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize?

Professor Tyler Cowen (of Marginal Revolution) finally discloses what everybody already knows: He’s a good economist and a popular blogger, but he is a lame predictor (just like most of us, probably). Let’s turn to prediction markets… well, there aren’t any for the 2006 Nobel Prize in economics, alas. So, let’s turn to bookmaker odds for the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize. (Paddy Power)

1. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono: 50%
2. Martti Ahtisaari: 20%
3. Bono: 11%
4. Rebiya Kadeer: 10%
5. Lida Yusupova: 7%

Later,

Chris Masse

Addendum: If a bookie sells you somebody at 50%, probably the true probability is 30%, at best. (Agree? Disagree?)